The ACC Bubble Watch
Filed under: ACC, NCAA Tournament, college basketball, sports
If you haven’t been living under a rock, you know that the month of March signals the beginning of March Madness. I will definitely be keeping track of things all month long, from the small conference tournaments through the national championship game. But before we get to that final destination, we still have a few days until one of the great holy days on the sports calendar: Selection Sunday. Between now and then, teams will play their way into, or out of, the NCAA tournament. Those teams who inclusion in the tournament seems in doubt are often said to be “on the bubble.” The first of many posts about March Madness will take a look at those teams considered to be on the bubble in the ACC.
Depending on where you look, the ACC as of this writing has three or four safe teams, or locks, and three or four teams on the bubble. For the purposes of this exercise, Duke, Maryland and Clemson will be considered in the tournament. Wake Forest is close to being a lock, and according to several sites is in the safe zone as of today. I will say that Wake isn’t exactly finishing strong, having lost three in a row with two difficult games on tap to close out the regular season-a road game against Florida State and a home game against Clemson. The Florida State game may amount to a play-in game, with both teams needing a win to shore up their body of work. With a couple more wins, Wake may play their way off the bubble.
That leaves three remaining teams to discuss: Florida State, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. It appears that the Seminoles (RPI 54) have the best upside of the three, with some great numbers and wins in their favor (wins over Marquette, and a 3-0 record against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech). However, the non-conference strength of schedule is weak, and they have a 6-7 record against the RPI top 100 which includes a loss to a Florida team also on the bubble. The one bad loss is to NC State. The Seminoles should get in, but a loss to Miami in the regular season finale will cause some doubts.
Virginia Tech (RPI 52) has been a surprise in the conference, but their national profile is suspect . The non-conference strength of schedule is even weaker than Florida State’s, they are on a three-game losing streak and their record is 5-5 against the RPI top 100. They also have losses to Boston College and Miami. Tonight’s game against NC State is a must win, and the finale against Georgia Tech is another potential bubble buster. Virginia Tech needs to win at least two games; if they split their final two regular season contests they will definitely need to win a game in the ACC tournament. No matter what, the Hokies cannot afford to lose to the Wolfpack. Even if they win those two games, there’s a good chance they will be on pins and needles again on Selection Sunday (as it seems they are almost every year).
While Georgia Tech has some great stats in their favor (high strength of schedule, and RPI of 35), they also have some demerits. Even though they have some of the best wins of the three teams on the bubble (Duke, Siena, Wake Forest, Clemson, Charlotte) they are 7-8 against teams in the RPI top 100 and also have two bad losses to Miami and Virginia. They also have a loss to Dayton (also on the bubble) on the resume, and were swept by Florida State. The regular season finale against the Hokies is a key game to watch for both teams, as the winner may go dancing and the loser may be headed to the N.I.T.
Stay tuned over the next ten days to see what happens.
Maryland Terrapins: Time To Pay Attention
Filed under: ACC, NCAA, basketball, college basketball, following the locals, sports
With football about to go on hiatus (the games, not the business), the time has come for me to begin paying attention to college and pro hoops. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been kinda keeping an eye on both of them (the NBA due to the Arenas mess and the fantasy basketball league I’m in), but this post will be about ACC hoops in general and the Maryland Terrapins in particular.
Almost every year without fail, the ACC is generally acknowledged as one of, if not the best, college hoops conference. Football in the ACC is a secondary thought-the joke is that the ACC is a basketball conference that dabbles in football. That perception is primarily borne on the success of the two unquestioned powerhouses in conference-Duke and North Carolina. Year after year, these two programs are the marquee features in the league, with successful season after successful season. Their success is often a given in the league-almost every year one or the other is expected to win the league and claim its automatic berth in the NCAA tournament. This year was expected to be no different. However, this year the conference race is wide open. Duke, while still good, is still beatable with the same flaws that have shown up in recent years. North Carolina is suffering a hangover no one really expected, as their young players haven’t quite gotten up to speed with life in the ACC. Everyone else is up and down depending on the opponent.
As it stands right now, Duke is in front, with a one game lead over a surprising Maryland Terrapins squad that is tied with Duke in the loss column. If the Terps can beat North Carolina today, they will finish the first half of their conference schedule with a 6-2 record, which actually wouldn’t be too shabby. The two conference games the Terps lost could hardly be considered shocking: a 2-point overtime loss to an athletic Wake Forest team and a loss to Clemson, both on the road. The Clemson loss may represent the worst game the Terps have played in conference so far. The second half of their conference schedule features two games with Duke and Virginia, the conference’s other surprise team, as well as dates with Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State and Georgia Tech. A 5-4 finish would get the Terps to 20 wins with 10 losses, and a 10-6 conference record. Granted, as a fan of the Terps you would want them to do better than that down the stretch, but that finish coupled with one win in the ACC tournament should be enough to get the Terps into the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive season. This time last year, Gary Williams was coming under fire for losing games and clashing with the administration, and yet this year, I’ve heard nothing about coaching, or problems.
So from this point forward, I’ll be giving college hoops greater attention between now and the NCAA championship game.
ACC: Looking Like Georgia Tech and Clemson
Filed under: ACC, NCAA Football, college football, football, sports
With the ACC football season coming down to its final weeks, we can say with certainty that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have emerged as the best team in the conference. With a spot in the ACC championship game clinched by Saturday’s blowout of Duke, the Yellow Jackets have a chance to play for a spot in the BCS, likely in the Orange Bowl. With only one loss in conference to a Miami Hurricanes team that has fallen from its somewhat lofty perch from earlier in the season, there can be little doubt that they have been the ACC’s best team. With only the annual rivalry game left on the schedule against Georgia following a bye week, the Yellow Jackets can get ready for the conference championship game, while waiting to see who their opponent will be.
That opponent looks to be the Clemson Tigers. The Tigers, aside from a victory over Miami in overtime, have been quietly going about their business ever since the loss to Maryland. With a win over fading Virginia on Saturday, Clemson will clinch a spot in the conference championship game to face the Yellow Jackets. Clemson did what they needed to do in a victory over N.C. State. The matchup will be a rematch of an exciting game that took place way back in week 2 on a Thursday night in Atlanta. In a back and forth affair, Tech edged Clemson by 3 with a late field goal being the difference. If the championship game is as exciting as that game was (provided Clemson makes it there), fans will not be disappointed.
Elsewhere, the conference has four other bowl-eligible teams: Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami and North Carolina. Florida State and Duke have chances to become bowl eligible with one more win. The road appears to be easier for the Seminoles than it does for the Blue Devils. Florida State has a date with Maryland before ending the season in the annual matchup with the #1 Florida Gators. Duke has a trip to Miami followed by a home date with Wake Forest. Neither game appears to be easy; Miami despite its recent inconsistency, has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and the Demon Deacons will be plenty motivated to finish their season on a high note.
ACC: Onward…Clemson?!?
Filed under: ACC, NCAA Football, college football, following the locals, football, sports
Last week in my weekly ACC post, I pointed out that if the conference championship game were to be played at the time of writing, that game would feature Boston College and Virginia. In yet another season where anyone can almost beat anyone else in the ACC, you just knew that the status of those two teams as division frontrunners was not going to last very long. So of course, it lasted for one week. Though the Eagles have no blame for what happened on Saturday (BC played Notre Dame and lost in an out of conference game), the Cavaliers were not as fortunate. Georgia Tech, which may be at the moment the conference’s best team, beat Virginia in Charlottesville 34-9. The win put Georgia Tech at the top of the Coastal Division standings with two conference games against Wake Forest and Duke standing between it and the conference championship game. If the Yellow Jackets can win those games, they are in, without any shadow of a doubt. But of course, this is the ACC. Anything can happen between now and the end of the conference season.
In the Atlantic Division where it seems no one wants to lead, this week’s leader is…Clemson? Yes, Clemson. The Tigers had the biggest win of their season on Saturday, beating the Miami Hurricanes on the road in overtime, 40-37. That win put Clemson in the driver’s seat in the Atlantic Division. Although currently tied with Boston College in wins and losses (both are 3-2 in conference), Clemson holds the head-to-head tiebreaker by virture of beating BC earlier in the season. Both teams cling to a slim half-game lead over Wake Forest, but Clemson holds the edge over the Demon Deacons as well by virture of a 38-3 victory ten days ago. However, Clemson has three conference games remaining-and lest anyone forget, the Tigers did lose to Maryland-so I wouldn’t celebrate just yet. They get the suddenly off the mat Florida State Seminoles at home, as well as the Cavaliers, and have to make a trip to North Carolina State, who along with North Carolina are the only winless teams in conference play.
In other game news, the Seminoles finally won a conference game, roaring from behind to beat North Carolina last Thursday night. It remains to be seen if this is the win that jump-starts Florida State’s season. With four conference games remaining, certainly the Seminoles can make some noise as to who does what in conference. They certainly can put a dent in Clemson’s title hopes on November 7th. Wake Forest went up to Annapolis and lost to a Navy team that did not throw a single pass the entire game. Navy seems to have one game a year where they don’t throw the ball and still come out on top. This makes the second time in three games in two years that the Midshipmen have beaten the Demon Deacons. Maryland suffered yet another loss, this time at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils. It has to be abundantly clear now that Duke is no longer the worst team in the ACC. Maryland just might be. The Terps must now win out to have any shot at a bowl game. Anyone willing to take that bet?
So write it in-Clemson vs. Georgia Tech-but in pencil only.
ACC: Dreams Die In Atlanta
Filed under: ACC, BCS, NCAA Football, college football, sports
Prior to Saturday’s loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, the Virginia Tech Hokies would have had you believe that they deserved to be in the “conversation.” That the one loss they had suffered in the opening game of the season to the Alabama Crimson Tide was looking better and better by the week. That when the BCS standings came out on Sunday, as the best one-loss team in the nation, they would be in the thick of things, clinging to hope that the field would come back to them and they would be in the mix to play for college football’s national championship.
Saturday the Hokies returned to Atlanta, the city of their opening game loss, to take on Georgia Tech. And while the Hokies fought valiantly, their woes on the road in general, and in Atlanta this season specifically, caught up to them in a 28-23 loss, that all but effectively ended the Hokies chances to get in the national championship mix. The big dog is no more. You could say, why not Miami or Georgia Tech? Shouldn’t they get national championship consideration? Well Miami would, except for their loss to Virginia Tech, who now will drift down in the polls, plus the fact that their best wins have come over a Florida State team that currently sits at 0-3 in conference play and an Oklahoma team that just suffered its third loss Saturday against Texas. Miami will have to win out, and with some style to play in a BCS game, not necessarily the national championship game. The path for Georgia Tech is even more daunting; because they started so low in the polls, there’s almost no way they can move up high enough to be rated in the top two in the BCS, and they have a loss to Miami on their record.
Elsewhere in the conference, if you can tell me right now who will be playing in the conference’s championship game, let me know. As of right now, that game would feature Boston College against Virginia. That would be the Eagles, who hung 52 points on NC State over the weekend, but couldn’t do hardly anything offensively against Clemson or Virginia Tech-and the Cavaliers, who were left for dead in Setpember, but haven’t lost a conference game as yet. Natrually, I don’t expect that to last. For one thing, anyone can win the Atlantic Division, even bottom-dweller Florida State, which faces an important game against fellow winless-in-conference North Carolina on Thursday night. I can’t see Virginia holding on either; the Yellow Jackets come calling in Charlottesville on Saturday, and Virginia Tech and Miami lie in wait.
So, it looks like another season where the teams in the conference will beat each other up, but no shot at national championship glory. Enjoy the conference races, maybe even enjoy the conference title game. It will be interesting to see who represents the conference in the BCS and what team they will match up against, but that is a long way down the road.
ACC: Playing For Bobby
Filed under: ACC, NCAA Football, college football, football
The big story in ACC football last week had nothing to do with any of the games played on Saturday. The week’s big story concerned the dean of coaches in the conference, Bobby Bowden at Florida State. Thanks to Jim Smith, the chairman of the university’s board of trustees, this quote made Bowden the center of attention all last week:
“My hope is frankly that we’ll go ahead, and if we have to, let the world know that this year will be the end of the Bowden era… I do appreciate what he’s done for us, what he’s done for the program, what he’s done really for the state of Florida.
“I think the record will show that the Seminole Nation has been more than patient. We have been in a decline not for a year or two or three but I think we’re coming up on seven or eight. I think enough is enough.”
With that quote about Bowden, whether it was whether or not he should resign, whether Jimbo Fisher (the coach-in-waiting), was ready to assume the mantle, how much money it would take to get Fisher signed, or to release him if Bowden is kept on past 2010, overshadowed any discussion of the upcoming game against Georgia Tech. While there are still fans who support Bowden, media and a now more vocal contingent is beginning to believe that it is time for the man who put Florida State football on the map to ride off into the sunset. Bowden will turn 80 years old on November 8, and for some time now, folks believe that age, and a fall from the standard he set in building the program prove that it’s time for a different voice as football coach.
Those that would criticize Bowden are using this season as an example. Except for a through domination of BYU in the third game of the season, Florida State has not lived up to expectations. An opening game near-miss against Miami was followed by a sleepwalking victory against Jacksonville State. Following the BYU game, the Seminoles have lost three consecutive games; two of those at home. First to South Florida starting a freshman at quarterback at home; then to Boston College on the road, to a team that in games against Clemson and Virginia Tech, had offensive troubles. Despite the crowd’s support for Bowden, and his players playing for him, the team came up short on Saturday. With Saturday’s loss to Georgia Tech 49-44, the Seminoles now have a three game losing streak, and are still looking for their first conference win. The Seminoles are in a place that they are not accustomed to being in: the bottom of the conference’s Atlantic Division standings. At 0-3 in conference, and 2-4 overall at the halfway point of the season, everyone is looking for the team to pick it up, and soon. A big game looms on October 22 against North Carolina, also winless in conference play. If Florida State loses that game, the cries for Bowden to leave will grow even louder.
Elsewhere in the conference, Virginia Tech is proving to be the class of the conference, and with a few breaks, may establish itself as a national championship contender. With only the loss against Alabama on the ledger, if the Hokies continue to win through the ACC championship game, and the teams above it suffer losses, who knows? Miami continued its winning ways, establishing itself as the second-best team in the conference and Georgia Tech’s win over Florida State would make it a solid third choice. Tech’s defensive issues though, may catch up with them before long. Everyone else, did what they did. Maryland fell back to earth after the Clemson win by getting drilled by Wake Forest. Virginia, once left for dead at the beginning of the season, now has won two games in a row with a 40-point win over Indiana of the Big Ten. Thaddeus Lewis threw for 459 yards in a Duke (Duke?) win over N.C. State. Finally North Carolina got a win over Georgia Southern.
ACC: Ain’t No Tellin’
Filed under: ACC, NCAA Football, SEC, college football, football, sports
Another college football weekend in the books, another unpredictable set of games for ACC conference teams. Like the title says, ain’t no tellin’ what you’re gonna get from week to week.
Start with what, until Saturday, were universally assumed to be the conference doormats. Virginia, which hadn’t won a game all season, and had lost its opening game against William & Mary, went down to North Carolina and beat the Tar Heels, giving them their second conference loss in a row. That win puts the Cavaliers at 1-0 in conference, making them and Virginia Tech unbeaten in the conference’s Coastal Division. And Maryland, giving away games faster than people give out Halloween candy, held on with a defensive effort not seen all season to beat Clemson 24-21. Can’t believe anyone could have seen that one coming (I know I didn’t). That win makes Maryland the only unbeaten team in the conference’s Atlantic division. How is this possible? Ain’t no tellin’.
Follow that up witih Miami’s Hurricanes, last seen being overmatched in the rain against the Hokies, bouncing back to beat Oklahoma, 21-20. Say what you want about the Sooners missing Sam Bradford, Jermaine Gresham and Ryan Broyles, Miami scored their points against the Sooner defense, which to my knowledge is still acknowledged as a pretty talented group of players. I’m not sure if that win brings Miami back into the national championship conversation, but anything can happen in college football, and the ‘Canes, just like the Hokies, only have one loss. If Florida, Texas and Alabama suffer losses in the coming weeks, do those two teams get back in the conversation? Ain’t no tellin’.
Elsewhere, Florida State…which team is this? Played Miami down to the wire, came out flat against Jacksonville State, destroyed BYU (which beat Oklahoma) in Utah, now losing to South Florida and Boston College (which lost to Clemson). Saturday’s loss to the Eagles means that the Seminoles are now 0-2 in conference, but you can’t really count them out of the Atlantic Division. I don’t think Maryland sitting on top of the division is any reason to panic, but the Seminoles have got to start playing better ball if they want to be a part of that conversation. Virginia Tech, which looked like world-beaters against Miami last week, held on to defeat Duke, and Wake Forest defeated a N.C. State team that just hung a loss on Pittsburgh of the Big East last week. Georgia Tech stepped out of conference and beat Mississippi State of the SEC, giving them a two-game winning streak. So, it looks like another conference season where the teams will beat up on each other…or will there be a “big dog” with a shot at, at this time, an unlikely national championship?
You got it: ain’t no tellin’.
Twitter: @mindpinball
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